Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang, with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 30.1% across the forecast period [5]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x PS, indicating attractive acquisition opportunities [4][13]. - An AI initiative to launch digital twins of renowned TCM doctors is expected to contribute RMB 30 million in annual performance starting in July 2025 [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025 are anticipated to generate over RMB 50 million in revenue [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 7.95 billion (approximately USD 1.02 billion) and a free float of 62% [2].
固生堂：25Q1就诊人次同比增长12.7%，并购+AI+院内制剂有望贡献业绩增量-20250519