石油化工行业周报第603期：原油需求有望回升，关注地缘政治和供给端不确定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Oil demand is expected to rebound due to easing trade conflicts, with IEA slightly raising its global oil demand forecast for 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to highlight the importance of energy security, with China's major oil companies planning significant capital expenditures for upstream operations in 2025 [2] - OPEC+ production increases may be lower than planned, and the growth rate of U.S. shale oil production is expected to slow down [3] - The long-term supply-demand dynamics for oil remain favorable, with a positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and oil service sectors [4] Summary by Sections Oil Demand Situation - The IEA has adjusted its 2025 global oil demand forecast upwards, indicating that emerging economies will drive demand growth, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline [1][2] Geopolitical Context - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Iran's nuclear negotiations, are creating uncertainties that impact energy security [2] Supply Situation - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, but actual increases may be less due to compliance issues [3] - U.S. shale oil producers are expected to reduce drilling activity due to current oil price levels being close to their marginal costs [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major Chinese oil companies and their subsidiaries, as well as leading firms in refining and coal chemical sectors, given the favorable long-term outlook [4]