高频数据跟踪：生产热度回升，物价整体上涨

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: May 19, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the holiday impact weakens, the overall production heat rebounds, with increased operating rates in the chemical, tire, and coke oven sectors. The asphalt operating rate reaches its highest level since December 2023, accelerating road construction. - The transaction of commercial housing stabilizes, while the land transaction area decreases. - Prices generally rebound, with rising prices of crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and rebar, and a decline in coking coal. Due to political unrest in Guinea affecting mineral supply and the easing of US tariff policies leading to demand recovery, the aluminum price may remain strong in the short term. - Short - term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the trend of commodity prices [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increases by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreases by 0.47 pct, and the rebar production increases by 3000 tons. The inventory of rebar decreases by 3280 tons [11] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate significantly increases by 5.6 pct, reaching a new high since December 2023 [11] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increases by 1.84 pct, and the PTA operating rate increases by 1.81 pct [11] - Automobile Tires: After the holiday, the operating rate seasonally rebounds significantly. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.32 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 19.98 pct [12] 2. Demand - Real Estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreases. The land transaction area decreases, and the premium rate of residential land transactions slightly increases [15] - Movie Box Office: It decreases by 40.9 million yuan compared with the previous week [15] - Automobile: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increase by 19000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increase by 14000 vehicles [17] - Shipping Index: The SCFI increases by 9.98%, the CCFI decreases by 0.14%, and the BDI increases by 6.85% [20] 3. Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price increases by 2.35% to $65.41 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreases by 2.21% to 864 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +0.02%, +2.56%, and +1.43% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increases by 2.11% [23] - Agricultural Products: They continue the seasonal downward trend. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreases by 0.76%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by +1.55%, +0.63%, - 2.05%, and - 1.50% respectively compared with the previous week [25] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both increase. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by 869900 person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by 790000 person - times [28] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decrease. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreases by 299.43 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 14.86 flights, and that of international flights decreases by 76.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounds. The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities increases by 0.09 [30] 5. Summary - The production heat rebounds, and prices generally rise. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the trend of commodity prices [33]