人形机器人行业深度报告：灵巧手技术路线逐步收敛，关注边际增量环节

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the humanoid robot industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is on the verge of large-scale production, with the technology for dexterous hands gradually converging, presenting marginal incremental opportunities in key segments such as drive motors, screws, tendons, and sensors [8] - The market for dexterous hands is expected to reach a scale of 45 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 114.11% from 2025 to 2030 [26] Summary by Sections 1. Humanoid Robot End-Effector and Industry Chain Marginal Changes - The dexterous hand, as the end-effector of humanoid robots, consists of three systems: drive, transmission, and perception. The current focus on dexterous hands is due to ongoing technological iterations, their critical role in functionality, and a significant market potential where the value of dexterous hands accounts for 30% of the overall robot [7][26] - The market for dexterous hands is projected to grow significantly, with the expected shipment of humanoid robots reaching 150 million units by 2030, leading to a corresponding increase in dexterous hand shipments [26] 2. Summary of Main Solutions: Lightweight, High Freedom, Multi-modal Perception, and Composite Transmission - The report identifies trends in dexterous hand solutions, emphasizing lightweight designs, increased degrees of freedom, and multi-modal perception capabilities. The freedom of movement in dexterous hands is increasing from 6 to 20 degrees, with a shift towards tendon-driven and composite transmission solutions [7][38] - The report highlights the importance of tactile sensors, which are becoming essential components in dexterous hands, evolving from fingertip integration to full-hand array configurations [7][38] 3. Performance & Cost Constraints Highlighting Incremental Opportunities in the Industry Chain - The report suggests focusing on key segments such as drive motors, where the increase in degrees of freedom necessitates more motors, and the potential for cost reduction through domestic production and technological advancements [44][51] - The composite transmission system using screws and tendons is expected to become mainstream, with the UHMWPE material projected to have a market size of 5.28 billion yuan by 2030 [63] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to enter the supply chain for dexterous hand assemblies, such as Longsheng Technology and Zhaowei Electromechanical, as well as those with significant potential for cost reduction in drive motors and components [8]