信用周报20240519：信用跌不动？-20250519

Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the credit bond market starting from May, with credit bonds showing resilience against the backdrop of weakening interest rate bonds [3][10][26] - The yield on credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of three years or less, has decreased more significantly than that of interest rate bonds, highlighting their anti-dip characteristics [3][10] - The current yield curve shows a steepening trend in the 2-4 year segment, while the ultra-long end remains relatively unchanged, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][13] Credit Strategy Insights - The report notes that the sentiment around secondary capital bonds remains cautious, with limited participation space in the 4-5 year segment due to yields approaching lower levels compared to the previous year [4][17] - The average duration of transactions in the market is short, with low valuation transactions not showing significant movement, suggesting a cautious optimism among investors [19][22] - The willingness to sell ultra-long credit bonds is evident, with a significant portion of transactions occurring at discounts, particularly for specific issuers like AVIC Capital [22][23] Market Performance Summary - The credit bond market has shown a positive performance over the past month, with yields consistently declining, although a cautious outlook is maintained due to insufficient absolute yields and credit spread protection [5][26] - The report emphasizes a focus on 2-4 year weak-quality city investment bonds, which are expected to see improved liquidity, while participation in higher-rated bonds in the 4-5 year segment is becoming more challenging [5][26] - The report highlights that the market's buying interest in ultra-long credit bonds is weak, with a preference shifting towards real estate bonds and lower-rated city investment bonds [23][25]