宏观经济宏观月报：4月“抢出口”强化生产韧性，内需有所走弱-20250519

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from March[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, down by 0.8 percentage points from March[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in April was 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from March[1] Trade and Exports - The total import and export value in April was 38,391 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%; exports were 22,645 billion yuan, up by 9.3%, while imports were 15,745 billion yuan, increasing by 0.8%[1] - The "export rush" behavior was observed due to the escalation of the US-China tariff war, enhancing domestic industrial production resilience[2] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year[1][2] Economic Outlook - The monthly GDP growth rate for April was approximately 5.1%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from March, but still above the annual economic growth target[2] - In extreme scenarios, if China's exports to the US drop by 100%, the annual GDP growth could fall to about 3.7%[3]