瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. If prices remain low, more enterprises may cut production; if market expectations improve, some enterprises may resume production. The demand side shows a significant marginal weakening trend, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules being synchronously adjusted down. The terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, and polysilicon inventory remains high, making it difficult to destock and putting severe pressure on spot prices. Overseas photovoltaic market demand also has uncertainties. The operation suggestion is to short - term layout long positions and go short on highs in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 37,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 300 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 28,688 lots, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 4,014 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 875 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 155 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 29,020 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 315 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,750 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, with no change. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 1,900 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 680 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,130 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.13 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,190 US dollars/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 units, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2,122,260 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/unit, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 16th, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 32 yuan/kg, N - type compact material is 35.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material is 39 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all with stable market prices. From January to April, the social financing increment was 16.34 trillion yuan, and the new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2]