Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-19 14:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the paper industry, projecting upward profitability in the medium to long term [2]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as consumer goods, particularly in domestic demand and export recovery, with specific recommendations for companies like Baia Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care [6][8]. - The report highlights structural changes in consumer behavior, with a focus on new consumption trends and the rise of domestic brands, particularly in the personal care and home goods sectors [8][18]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - The report notes significant tariff reductions following the US-China Geneva trade talks, which are expected to benefit companies with high exposure to US exports, such as Jiayi Co. and Hars [6][7]. - Companies like Yutong Technology and Yiyi Co. are highlighted for their strong positions in the export market, particularly in the pet care and furniture sectors [7]. Domestic Consumer Goods - The personal care sector is identified as resilient, with domestic brands gaining market share. Recommendations include Baia Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care [8][10]. - The report discusses the expected recovery in demand for baby diapers and sanitary products, driven by demographic trends and supportive policies [9][10]. New Consumption Trends - The report identifies opportunities in the integration of IP into traditional consumer products, with companies like Chenguang Co. and Blukoo leading the way [10][11]. - The AI glasses market is highlighted as a growth area, with significant potential for companies like Kangnait Optical and Mingyue Lens [14]. Two-Wheel Vehicle Market - The report discusses the impact of the old-for-new subsidy policy on the electric bicycle market, predicting a significant increase in sales and market activity [15][17]. - Companies such as Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [17]. Home Goods Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home goods sector, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumer spending [18][21]. - Companies like Sophia, Oppein Home, and Gujia Home are recommended for their potential to benefit from these trends [27]. High Dividend Stocks - The report emphasizes the value of stable high-dividend stocks in the current market environment, recommending companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. for their robust performance [28].