瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with yields from 1 - 7Y down by 0.5 - 2bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields down by about 2bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed up collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.66%. [2] - Domestically, policy pre - force boosts domestic demand, resulting in strong economic data. Retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. In April's financial data, credit was weak, possibly due to the overdraft of reserves from Q1 credit issuance. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff friction led to an export rebound, and fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be continuously strengthened for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US April PMI declined slightly, non - farm payrolls growth, PPI, and retail sales data were all below expectations, and CPI cooled unexpectedly. However, the market has not significantly adjusted the expectation of a June interest rate cut. [2] - Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts' positive news led to a significant decline in market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and there is a risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closed at 108.605, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 57,954, an increase of 8,147. [2] - TF main contract closed at 105.735, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of 42,586, an increase of 10,666. [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.258, unchanged, with a trading volume of 15,952, an increase of 169. [2] - TL main contract closed at 119.320, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 43,076, a decrease of 8,519. [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.40, up 0.02; T06 - TL06 spread was - 10.72, down 0.28. [2] - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, up 0.05; TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.27, up 0.08. [2] - TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.87, down 0.11; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.35, down 0.14. [2] - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.48, down 0.03. [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 82,926, a decrease of 16,686. The top 20 long positions were 180,613, a decrease of 1,278; the top 20 short positions were 180,122, a decrease of 642; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 66,890, a decrease of 12,462. The top 20 long positions were 133,033, a decrease of 1,890; the top 20 short positions were 146,502, a decrease of 2,268; the net short position was 13,469, a decrease of 378. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 37,646, a decrease of 6,630. The top 20 long positions were 89,490, a decrease of 1,659; the top 20 short positions were 108,959, a decrease of 2,221; the net short position was 19,469, a decrease of 562. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 47,914, a decrease of 2,273. The top 20 long positions were 95,272, an increase of 2,512; the top 20 short positions were 95,170, an increase of 2,183; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220003.IB (6y) was 107.0295, up 0.0553; 240025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0942. [2] - 240014.IB (4y) was 101.4363, up 0.0166; 220021.IB (4y) was 104.4235, up 0.0108. [2] - 250006.IB (1.7y) was 100.2214, up 0.0134; 220007.IB (1.9y) was 101.903, up 0.0236. [2] - 200012.IB (18y) was 136.4822, up 0.3013; 210005.IB (18y) was 135.4265, up 0.2939. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield was 1.4450%, up 1.00bp; 3y yield was 1.5050%, up 1.50bp. [2] - 5y yield was 1.5450%, up 0.75bp; 7y yield was 1.6300%, up 0.75bp. [2] - 10y yield was 1.6790%, up 0.90bp. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5256%, up 4.56bp; Shibor overnight was 1.5370%, down 11.70bp. [2] - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6100%, up 1.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5620%, up 1.70bp. [2] - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6700%, up 3.37bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6540%, up 5.30bp. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR was 3.10%, unchanged; 5y LPR was 3.6%, unchanged. [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Reverse repurchase issuance scale was 135 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 43 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 92 billion yuan. [2] 3.9 Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Capital Financial Work Symposium. Pan Gongsheng said the central bank will support Beijing in building a high - ground for science and technology finance development and promoting Beijing's RMB internationalization to remain at the forefront nationwide. [2] - US President Trump said he will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the "next two to three weeks", stating that the US government is unable to negotiate with all trading partners simultaneously. Treasury Secretary Bezant and Commerce Secretary Ratnik will send letters to inform countries of the costs for accessing the US market. [2] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, citing increased government debt. By 2035, the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP, and the federal government deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP. GDP growth may slow as the economy adjusts to tariffs. [2]