显微镜下的中国经济（2025年第18期）

Economic Outlook - Despite the phase reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S., domestic policy execution is expected to accelerate rather than slow down[1] - April economic data indicates strong resilience in industrial production, consumption, and investment, suggesting Q2 economic growth may stabilize near annual targets[1] Real Estate Market - In April, the sales area of residential properties in 30 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 12.1% and a month-on-month decline of 24.0%[1] - The total sales area for the first four months decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 1.9%[1] Policy Implications - Current policies are likely to be executed more aggressively to prepare for potential adverse conditions in the next 90 days, despite the temporary stability in U.S.-China tariffs[1] - The weakening real estate market may negatively impact future durable goods consumption and retail sales growth[1] Risks - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[1]