2025年4月经济数据点评：经济顶住压力，实现稳定增长

Consumption - In April 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, lower than the expected 5.5% and the previous month's 5.9%[3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in categories like home appliances, furniture, and consumer electronics, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively[4] - The fiscal multiplier for the "old-for-new" policy increased to 2.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a strong impact on consumption growth[5] Manufacturing and Investment - In April 2025, manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.2%, down from 9.2% in March, but still at a relatively high level[18] - Fixed asset investment from January to April 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, slightly below the expected 4.3%[6] - Equipment investment, driven by the "two heavy" policies, saw a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth[18] Real Estate - In April 2025, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales expanded, with sales area growth dropping from -1.6% in March to -2.9% in April, and sales revenue declining from -2.3% to -7.1%[26] - Real estate development investment also saw a worsening decline, with a year-on-year drop of 11.5% in April, compared to -10.3% in March[26] Infrastructure - Broad infrastructure investment growth in April 2025 was 9.6%, down from 12.6% in March, while narrow infrastructure growth was stable at 5.8%[20] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 1.2 trillion yuan in the first four months, accounting for 27% of the annual target, which is significantly higher than the 19% in the same period of 2024[20] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook remains cautious, with internal growth drivers needing enhancement and household income growth facing pressure[2] - Continued precision in policy implementation is necessary to strengthen domestic circulation and respond to international trade challenges[2]