Changjiu Logistics(SH:603569) Bank of China Securities·2025-05-20 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [1][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.175 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.34%, and a net profit of 79.565 million RMB, up 13.11% year-on-year, indicating stable overall financial performance [3][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.157 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.18%, but the net profit fell to 3.9823 million RMB, down 73.29% year-on-year, primarily due to price reductions from main engine manufacturers and increased costs in the energy storage business [8]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the company's focus on new energy and international business, with plans to enhance multi-modal transport and optimize logistics efficiency [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 4.175 billion RMB and a net profit of 79.565 million RMB, with core international business revenue growing by 87.47% and new energy business revenue increasing by 210.27% [8]. - The company forecasts net profits of 104 million RMB, 141 million RMB, and 155 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 30.7%, 35.8%, and 9.8% [5][7]. Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast due to pressure on domestic vehicle logistics business, projecting a PE ratio of 47.8, 35.2, and 32.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is 0.17 RMB per share, with a downward adjustment of 32% from previous forecasts [5][7]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to leverage its fleet of over 2,450 self-owned vehicles and nearly 10,000 compliant carriers to ensure road transport supply, while also integrating waterway transport capabilities to enhance multi-modal logistics [8]. - The strategy includes expanding into the Mexican and Southeast Asian markets and improving the energy storage product matrix [8].