美元债双周报（25年第20周）：评级下调加剧美债中长期压力

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data for April has continued to cool, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since February 2021. Core CPI has also dropped to 2.8%, marking the first time it has fallen below 3% [1]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over the worsening government deficit. The report anticipates that the federal deficit will approach 9% of GDP by 2035, with federal debt reaching 134% of GDP [2]. - The report notes that U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year and 2-year yields recorded at 4.43% and 3.99%, respectively. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds has narrowed to 44 basis points [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomic and Liquidity Analysis - April's inflation data shows a significant decline in prices for food, used cars, and air transportation, contributing to the overall slowdown in inflation. However, housing costs remain a major driver of inflation, accounting for over half of the CPI increase [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential lagging effects of trade tariff adjustments, which may not yet be fully reflected in the market, suggesting that future tariff increases could lead to a rebound in core commodity prices [1]. Credit Rating Actions - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has intensified market concerns regarding fiscal sustainability, potentially limiting the scope for monetary policy easing. The market expects the first interest rate cut to occur in September, with an anticipated reduction of approximately 50 basis points over the year [2][3]. - The report indicates that the recent downgrade, while anticipated, may still impact risk appetite in the short term, urging investors to adopt a cautious approach towards long-duration bonds [3]. Important Events and Data - The report advises monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including April's real estate sales data, April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and May's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data [3].