宝城期货国债期货早报-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2506 are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that although the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, the upward momentum is insufficient due to factors such as the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April and the low possibility of immediate interest rate cuts, so it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that the upward space of market interest rates is limited due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. However, due to factors such as the weakening of external risks, the need to verify the policy effects of internal economic indicators, and the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April, the possibility of immediate interest rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4].