降准后资金偏紧的微观逻辑

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The first reserve requirement ratio cut of the year on May 15 is expected to release approximately 1 trillion long-term liquidity. However, the money market tightened marginally post-cut, with DR001 rising by 22 basis points to 1.63% on May 16, exceeding the 7-day OMO rate by 23 basis points. This phenomenon is attributed to the "staggered reduction" in reverse repos and the drastic shifts in bank treasury operations [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Credit Trends - After the quarter-end, there was a significant decline in credit issuance during early to mid-April and May, leading treasury departments to expand their balance sheets based on the expectation of a reserve requirement cut. The credit planning target for May is anticipated to be weak, with April's new RMB loans at 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion [11][12]. 2. Liability Duration - Banks are managing their liability duration to mitigate interest rate risks due to anticipated declines in deposit rates, resulting in decreased stability on the liability side. Market liabilities (including central bank and interbank) also exhibit short durations, leading to concentrated maturity profiles [2][15]. 3. Reverse Repo Operations - It is expected that the May reverse repo operations will implement a "staggered reduction" in volume, with treasury departments shifting to significant balance sheet reductions. The timing of reverse repo inquiries is likely to be delayed to avoid excessive liquidity accumulation following the reserve requirement cut [3][17][19]. 4. Funding Market Outlook - The high overnight funding rate of 1.7% is deemed unsustainable. The tightening of liquidity post-reserve cut is viewed as a temporary situation influenced by the staggered reverse repo operations and the volatile shifts in treasury operations. Overall, the funding market is expected to remain stable, with a slight potential for marginal tightening in the future [4][19].