焦炭：铁水下行，震荡偏弱：铁水下行，震荡偏弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal markets will experience downward trends in hot metal production and will show a weak and fluctuating pattern [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 845 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day; the closing price of J2509 was 1428 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 1.21% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: JM2509 had a trading volume of 417,286 lots, an open interest of 459,046 lots, and an increase of 14,459 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 24,044 lots, an open interest of 53,630 lots, and an increase of 3,097 lots [2] - Spot Prices: For coking coal, prices of most domestic varieties remained unchanged, while the peak - view coal converted to RMB increased by 2 yuan; for coke, all spot prices remained unchanged [2] - Warehouse Receipt Costs: Among coking coal warehouse receipts, the cost of Mongolian 5 decreased by 15 yuan, and the cost of Mongolian 3 decreased by 20 yuan; the cost of coke warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of JM2509 in Shanxi increased by 7.5 yuan, while that of Mongolian 5 and 3 decreased; the basis of J2509 in different regions all increased; the spread of JM2509 - JM2601 increased by 11 yuan, and the spread of J2509 - J2601 increased by 0.5 yuan [2] Price and Position Status - Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes: On May 19, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports ranged from 1190 to 1350 yuan/ton [2] - May 19th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu remained unchanged; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi decreased by 15 yuan; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Mongolian 3) in Shaheyi decreased by 20 yuan [3] - Position Status: On May 19, 2025, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 7,490 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,315 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 1,723 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,709 lots [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is 0 [5]