煤焦早报：房价环比走弱，煤焦下行-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillating", and for coking coal is "oscillating weakly". [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in April shows a decline in the number of cities with rising real - estate prices month - on - month, a delay in the bottom - hitting time of housing prices, and a decline in industrial added - value year - on - year and month - on - month compared to March. Although the total social financing data is still increasing year - on - year, the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. The black sector shows a weak trend, and the coal - coke market is likely to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern before the implementation of supply - side production restrictions and the effectiveness of fiscal policies. [4][5] - In the short term, coal - coke is in a downward trend, but as the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline in the 09 contract will increase. Given the extremely low valuation, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and wait to add positions after confirming the bottom. [5] 3. Summary of Each Section Coking Coal 3.1 Related Information - The spot price of coking coal has been lowered, and the futures price has been declining continuously. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1,015 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 845 yuan/ton (down 7.5), the basis is 190 yuan/ton (up 7.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -10.5 yuan/ton (up 11). [1] - The mine operation rate has slightly declined, while the coke enterprise operation rate remains flat. The operation rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (down 0.66), the operation rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (down 0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.23% (up 0.18). [2] - The upstream has accumulated inventory, while the downstream has reduced inventory. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (up 200,200 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (up 59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (up 4,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (down 226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (up 82,800 tons). [2] 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Supply remains the biggest negative factor. Although the operation rate of domestic coking coal mines has slightly declined, it remains at a high level for the year. The clean coal and raw coal of mines have continued to accumulate inventory at an accelerating pace. [5] - It is not cost - effective to chase short - selling. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and wait to add positions after confirming the bottom. [5] Coke 3.1 Related Information - The first - round spot price cut has been implemented, and the futures price has oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,390 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1,428 yuan/ton (down 17.5), the basis is -67.87 yuan/ton (up 17.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -26.5 yuan/ton (up 0.5). [3] - Supply remains flat, and demand may have peaked. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.23% (up 0.18), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (down 0.33), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4477 million tons (down 87,000 tons). [3] - The upstream inventory remains flat, while the downstream has reduced inventory. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 65,460 tons (up 370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (down 7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (down 3,970 tons). [3] 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - The cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for the future trend. After the continuous unexpectedly high pig iron output, there was a slight decline this week. Considering the seasonality and the possibility of subsequent production restrictions, it may be the short - term peak of pig iron production. [5] - Potential positive factors include crude steel production restrictions to increase the industrial chain profit margin and the implementation of fiscal policies. Before these two factors show obvious signs, coal - coke is likely to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern. [5]