国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction in nickel ore provides a bottom - support, while the economics of conversion production may limit the upside valuation [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The ore price has dropped significantly again, and the weak operation may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Upstream production is gradually resuming, leading to a supply - demand surplus [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, and there is a downward driving force in the market [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, down 15 from T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,850, down 210 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed different changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,180, down 620 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,580, also down 620 from T - 1. Other data including trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products in the industrial chain all showed declines [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. A wildfire in Canada threatened the Tanco lithium mine [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2507 closing price was 8,130, down 190 from T. The PS2506 closing price was 37,150, down 1,300 from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain showed various trends [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported metal silicon from several countries [15][17]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 2; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].