宏源期货日刊-20250520

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is affected by production cut news and polyester factors, with prices fluctuating. The market is expected to maintain a slow adjustment trend in the short - term due to factors such as inventory digestion and cautious market participants [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Price Information - As of May 19, 2025, the spot intermediate price of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.38/ton, up 0.71% from the previous value; the price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $781.00/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory average price of cyclohexane oxide in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol MA was 2,365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pit - mouth price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan/ton, down 3.33%; the closing price of the DCE EG main contract was 4,475 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 4,483 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the closing price of the DCE EG near - month contract was 4,557 yuan/ton, up 0.77%; the settlement price was 4,578 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 0 yuan/ton, down 100%; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol was 4,575 yuan/ton, up 0.77%; the near - far month price difference was 95 yuan/ton, up 32; the basis was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 [1] - The cash - flow situations: the after - tax gross profit of MTO - made EG was - 1,471.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 84.73 compared to the previous value; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthetic gas method was 824.78 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.06 [1] - Polyester prices: the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,665 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [1] Market Situation - In the morning of May 19, the ethylene glycol market was volatile. Affected by production cut news, the market saw a small decline. The spot basis and contract prices changed. Near - month contracts had a small increase. In the afternoon, the internal and external markets were still volatile, with fewer offers and less trading. There were some transactions in Taiwan tenders and other sources at specific price ranges [2] Production and Inventory - A 370,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in the United States is still under maintenance, and the plan is postponed. The ethylene glycol market has supply - side unexpected losses and high loads. In the short - term, the market will focus on inventory digestion. The inventory reduction efficiency is slow, and the overall market will continue to adjust slowly [2] Sales of Downstream Products - The sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 20%, 6.3%, and 38.8% respectively, with a light trading atmosphere [2]