国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others. It also presents fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities for each product [2]. - Market trends are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international political situations (e.g., the US - Iran nuclear negotiation), economic prospects, and industry policies. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The market is in a unilateral oscillatory state. The month - spread remains strong. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. The demand for PX is still tight due to the restart of several PTA devices. The PX - MX spread has expanded, and it is advisable to lock in the spread at high levels by shorting PX and going long on SC [5][7][9]. - PTA: With the planned maintenance of filament plants, the unilateral trend weakens. It is recommended to hold the position of shorting PTA processing fees, and the mid - term strategy for the month - spread is to go long at low levels. The short - term unilateral price may pull back [5][9]. - MEG: Similar to PTA, the planned maintenance of filament plants leads to a weakening of the unilateral trend, and the short - term price may pull back [5][8][10]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis and some price spreads have changed. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the domestic butadiene market is slightly weak [12][13][14]. c. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals provide some support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has dropped significantly [16][19]. d. Asphalt - The asphalt market is in a high - level oscillation state. The production has decreased this week, and both the factory and social inventories have decreased. The BU - SC spread has stabilized after expansion, and the basis in Shandong has strengthened and then partially converged [20][21][35]. e. LLDPE - LLDPE is in a mid - term oscillatory state. The macro situation is favorable, and short - term plastic product exports support the market. However, the supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high. The demand is weak, and the future trend still faces pressure. Attention should be paid to the spread change between HDPE and LLDPE [36][37]. f. PP - The price of PP has slightly declined, and the trading volume is average. The futures market has weakened, affecting the spot market atmosphere. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [40][41]. g. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The price of alumina has risen, driving the caustic soda futures to be strong. However, there is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals. The downstream inventory - building situation determines the rebound sustainability. The supply is sufficient, and the export can provide support, but the possibility of foreign merchants' continuous high - level inventory - building in the off - season is low [43][44][45]. h. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis has decreased. The spot market is weak and stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [46][47][48]. i. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has small fluctuations, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious change [50]. j. Methanol - Methanol is under oscillatory pressure. The spot price has declined, and the port inventory has decreased last week. The mid - term trend is weak, and the pressure of imports from Iran after June is large. The MTO operating rate is high, and the inland spot is relatively strong, but the rebound space is limited due to weak coal prices [53][56][57]. k. Urea - Urea is in a high - level oscillatory state. The futures market will have a long - short game. The downward trend is supported by the improving macro - sentiment and the release of fertilizer demand in some regions. The upward space is restricted by policies. The factory price is expected to be firm, while the market price may adjust downward [58][60][61]. l. Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the current valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term accumulation of visible inventory takes time. The downstream production and sales have fluctuated, and attention should be paid to new orders and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories [62][63]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined, the supply is adjusted at a low level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The market is expected to be stable in the short term [64][66]. n. LPG - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have declined [69][75][76]. o. PVC - PVC is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The macro situation is favorable, but the fundamentals show high production and high inventory. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the high - inventory pressure persists. The export can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the domestic demand is weak [79][80]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is oscillating and rebounding with a narrow price adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market has slightly rebounded [83].