国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250520

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated May 20, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - Investment Rating: Implied as short - term weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [5]. - Core View: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force has slowed down [4]. - Key Points: - Futures price closed at 736.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan (-0.07%). Open interest increased by 13,617 to 757,976 hands [5]. - Imported ore prices declined, e.g., PB (61.5%) dropped 5 yuan to 773 yuan/ton [5]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [7][9]. - Core View: Raw materials continue to decline, and both are in a weak and volatile state [7]. - Key Points: - Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan (-1.00%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,207 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.02%) [7]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; the daily average output in April decreased by 4.3% month - on - month [7][9]. - From May 1 - 10, 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Investment Rating: Wide - range volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [10][12]. - Core View: Ferrosilicon cost may decline, while silicomanganese is supported by spot prices [10]. - Key Points: - Ferrosilicon 2507 futures closed at 5,690 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; silicomanganese 2509 futures closed at 5,844 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [10]. - Silicomanganese spot price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan to 5,580 yuan/ton [10]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; exports of manganese ore through Port Hedland in April decreased by 37.5% month - on - month [10][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Investment Rating: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [14][17]. - Core View: Pig iron output is declining, leading to a weak and volatile state [14]. - Key Points: - Coking coal JM2509 futures closed at 845 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan (-0.88%); coke J2509 futures closed at 1,428 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan (-1.21%) [14]. - On May 19, 2025, from the top 20 members' positions in DCE, coking coal JM2509 contract's long positions increased by 7,490 hands, and short positions increased by 8,315 hands [15]. Steam Coal - Investment Rating: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. - Core View: Coal mine inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak and volatile state [18]. - Key Points: - Steam coal ZC2506 had no trading on May 20, 2025, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [18]. - Southern port's foreign - trade steam coal prices and domestic production area prices are provided [19]. Logs - Investment Rating: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of -1 [21][25]. - Core View: In a state of weak oscillation [21]. - Key Points: - Log 2507 contract's closing price was 788 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.6% daily and 2.6% weekly [23]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [25].