山金期货原油日报-20250520

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, and the market generally believes the Fed will be cautious about rate cuts. After the suspension of Sino-US tariffs, the market sentiment is good, but the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be observed. The market should also pay attention to the scale of US Treasury bonds this year and be sensitive to the potential sharp rise in Treasury yields [2]. - OPEC+ has decided to accelerate production increases and may continue to do so in July. The supply growth expectation is relatively certain, but when the supply increase will materialize needs data verification. The geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Israel, and Iran may move towards negotiation, with slow progress. The demand may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant supply increase, the impact of seasonal demand on prices may be limited. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and oil prices may fluctuate based on supply and demand expectations, while also being affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - Oil prices are under overall pressure. There are differences in the rhythm of OPEC+ supply increases, and the market is waiting for Saudi Arabia's attitude. If oil prices are stable, the supply pressure may be released smoothly; if prices decline, it may lead to market share competition. Geopolitical negotiations are progressing slowly, and conflicts may be in a stalemate, with a possibility of short - term disturbances. The US Treasury yields fluctuate greatly, and attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - From a technical perspective, after oil prices broke through the multi - year production cut bottom, they rebounded to test the pressure level. WTI crude oil shows pressure around $64 per barrel. The trading strategy is to maintain a short - selling approach in the medium term and consider short positions or adding put options when prices rise back to the production cut bottom range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - Futures Prices: On May 19th, Sc was at 462.80 yuan/barrel, down 9.80 yuan (-2.07%) from last week; WTI was at $62.15 per barrel, down $0.34 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $0.19 (0.31%) from last week; Brent was at $65.48 per barrel, up $0.49 (0.75%) from last week [2]. - Price Spreads: Sc - WTI was $2.20 per barrel, up 137.96% from the previous day and down 39.13% from last week; Sc - Brent was -$1.13 per barrel, down -41.12% from the previous day and -291.44% from last week; Brent - WTI was $3.33 per barrel, down -273.96% from the previous day and up 465.58% from last week [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $64.08 per barrel, down $1.30 (-1.99%) from last week; Brent DTD was at $65.01 per barrel, down $1.06 (-1.60%) from last week; Oman was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; Dubai was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; ESPO was at $60.80 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.49%) from last week [2]. - Product Prices: Diesel in East China was at 6592.82 yuan/ton, down 6.91 yuan from the previous day and up 14.27 yuan (0.22%) from last week; gasoline in East China was at 7640.82 yuan/ton, down 23.18 yuan (-0.30%) from the previous day and down 54.27 yuan (-0.71%) from last week [2]. 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - Inventory: Sc warehouse receipts were 402.90 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 399.65 million barrels, up 0.53 million barrels (0.13%) from the previous week; US commercial crude oil was 441.83 million barrels, up 3.45 million barrels (0.79%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.89 million barrels, down 1.07 million barrels (-4.28%) from the previous week; gasoline was 224.71 million barrels, down 1.02 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week; distillates were 103.55 million barrels, down 3.16 million barrels (-2.96%) from the previous week [2]. - Positions: Non - commercial net positions were 18.53 million contracts, up 0.99 million contracts (5.63%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were -18.48 million contracts, down 0.42 million contracts (2.35%) from the previous week; non - reported net positions were -0.05 million contracts, down 0.56 million contracts (-108.97%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission's Trade Commissioner will propose to the G7 finance ministers this week to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [3]. - Trump and Putin agreed to continue dialogue and plan a future meeting, while there is no time frame for a possible Russia - Ukraine ceasefire [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky is willing to have direct negotiations with Russia but will not compromise on territorial issues [4]. - Angola's oil exports are expected to increase to 1.02 million barrels per day in July [5]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026, and raises its Iran oil supply forecast from the second half of 2025 to 2026 to 3.6 million barrels per day [5]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 8.6%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 66.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 30.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.3% [6]. - Dallas Fed President Logan suggests the Fed strengthen mechanisms to prevent money market rate spikes, encourage banks to use the discount window, and focus on broader market rates [6]. - Fed's Bostic expects to cut interest rates once this year and may act earlier if trade negotiations go well [6]. - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon does not rule out the possibility of the US economy entering stagflation and points out that the US debt - to - GDP ratio is too high [7].