Changjiang Securities·2025-05-20 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [12] Core Insights - The Yangtze Bank Index increased by 1.5% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3% and the ChiNext Index by 0.1%. The recent public fund regulations are expected to drive long-term fund allocations towards the banking sector, which has been underrepresented compared to its weight in the CSI 300 [2][6] - The report highlights that the average dividend yield of the five major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.47%, with a significant spread of 279 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield. The H-shares have an even higher average dividend yield of 5.77%, indicating a notable valuation discount compared to A-shares [7][22] - In April, new social financing totaled 1.16 trillion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds, while new RMB loans were only 280 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan. The report anticipates a continuation of weak credit issuance in May, with banks expected to increase lending intensity by the end of June [8][29] - The report notes a significant decline in net interest margins for commercial banks, with an overall decrease of 9 basis points to 1.43% in Q1 2025. State-owned banks saw a drop of 11 basis points to 1.33%, marking a historical low, while city commercial banks performed better due to lower mortgage ratios and strong local credit demand [9][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze Bank Index's performance this week indicates a positive trend, with specific banks like Ruifeng Bank leading the gains [2][6] Dividend Yields and Valuation - The report emphasizes the attractive dividend yields of state-owned banks compared to government bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in H-shares due to their valuation discount [7][22] Credit and Financing Trends - April's financing data shows a reliance on government bonds for social financing growth, with a notable decline in new loans, indicating a cautious lending environment [8][29] Banking Sector Profitability - The decline in net interest margins across the banking sector highlights challenges in profitability, particularly for state-owned banks, while city commercial banks show resilience [9][39]