新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-20）-20250520

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term "high-level short allocation", long-term positive outlook for positive spreads [2] - Coking coal and coke: "Weak and volatile" [2] - Rebar and wire rod: "Volatile" [2] - Glass: "Volatile" [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 "Volatile", Shanghai 50 "Rebound", CSI 500 "Upward", CSI 1000 "Upward" [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year "Volatile", 5-year "Volatile", 10-year "Decline" [4] - Gold and silver: "High-level volatile" [4] - Pulp: "Weak and volatile" [5] - Logs: "Bottom volatile" [5] - Oils and fats: "Volatile" [5] - Meal products: "Volatile and bearish" [5] - Live pigs: "Volatile" [7] - Rubber: "Strong and volatile" [7] - PX: "Wait-and-see" [7] - PTA: "Wait-and-see" [8] - MEG: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PR: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PF: "Narrow-range consolidation" [8] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. Coal and coke markets are mainly following the trend of finished products. Steel prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the short term. Glass prices lack upward momentum. Stock index futures are recommended for long positions, and treasury bonds are also recommended for long positions. Precious metals are expected to maintain high-level volatility. Pulp prices are expected to be weak. Log prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate. Oils and fats and meal products markets are volatile. Live pig prices are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are recommended for a wait-and-see approach [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply is expected to increase with the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments and the release of some mine capacities. Demand is the key factor. Although the market's expectation for steel demand has improved, the actual demand is seasonally weak. High iron ore port inventories put pressure on prices. The weakening of trade conflicts may bring opportunities for far-month short selling [2] Coal and Coke - The supply and demand of coking coal remain loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke prices have been lowered. Coke supply continues to increase, and inventories are rising overall [2] Rebar and Wire Rod - The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, and demand is expected to decline. The total inventory is still in the process of being depleted, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the inventory depletion. Steel prices are under short-term pressure [2] Glass - Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. Spot prices have declined slightly, and profits have been squeezed. Inventories have increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Stock Index Futures/Options - The previous trading day's performance of major stock indices varied. Sector funds flowed in and out differently. Macroeconomic data showed mixed results. With the phased results of Sino-US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, market risk aversion has eased, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and market interest rates have decreased, providing support for Treasury bond prices. Long positions in Treasury bonds are recommended [4] Precious Metals - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Gold's currency, financial, and hedging attributes are affected by various factors. Short-term factors such as trade tensions and Fed policies may cause fluctuations, but gold prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Pulp - Spot market prices have shown a differentiated trend, and external market prices have declined. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills' inventories are increasing. Demand has entered the off-season, and pulp prices are expected to be weak [5] Logs - Downstream demand has entered the off-season, and the supply of logs is expected to decrease. Current inventories are being depleted, and prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate [5] Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is in the seasonal growth period, and inventories have increased significantly. The supply of three major oils and fats is abundant, while consumption is in the off-season. Prices are expected to be volatile [5] Meal Products - Sino-US trade relations have eased, but the weather in the US soybean-growing areas is a key factor. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply of meal products is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [5] Live Pigs - The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and demand from slaughtering enterprises has remained stable. Post-festival consumption demand has decreased, but the demand for secondary fattening provides support. Prices are expected to remain stable [7] Rubber - Domestic rubber production is relatively stable, while raw material prices in Thailand have continued to rise. Demand from sample tire enterprises has recovered, and inventories are expected to decrease slightly. Market sentiment is positive, but supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on prices. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile [7] PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may affect oil prices. The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG have fluctuated, and inventories have changed. The polyester market is affected by raw material prices and production reduction plans. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for these products [7][8]