宝城期货资讯早班车-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's economy withstood pressure and maintained stable growth, but external uncertainties remained, and the foundation for continuous economic recovery needed further consolidation [2][11][12] - The A - share market is expected to enter an era of mergers and acquisitions, and the current valuation is relatively low with prominent allocation value; the report is still optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong stocks [30][31] - The bond market is supported by fundamentals and policies, but there are also short - term challenges and uncertainties [19][25][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month [1] - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in April 2025 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively, with M0 and M2 accelerating compared to the previous month [1] - In April 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; the PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year, down from - 2.5% in the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In April 2025, China's industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales all grew year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [2] - In April 2025, the new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly; the year - on - year decline in housing prices in all tiers continued to narrow [2] - The US adjusted the relevant statements of chip export control, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature remained unchanged, and China urged the US to correct its mistakes [3][14] - The chairman of Zhongcai Futures and the company became the largest copper bull in China, accumulating nearly $1 billion in bets [3] 3.2.2 Metals - The European Central Bank believes that the gold market may pose a risk to financial stability [4] - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive bets [5] - Saudi Mining Company will explore the establishment of a rare - earth supply chain with a US rare - earth producer [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea in April [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU will propose to the G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [7] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reached agreements with multiple US energy companies, potentially locking in $60 billion in investment [7] - Turkey discovered a new natural gas field with a reserve of 75 billion cubic meters in the Black Sea [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In April 2025, China's industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% [8] - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, hitting a new high in recent years [8] - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and pig inventories in the US was 74.512 million [8] - Datagro estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season would reach 169.1 million tons, and the corn production would be 126.9 million tons [9] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On May 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 92 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Key News - The new LPR is expected to decline in May 2025 [11] - In April 2025, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail sales all showed year - on - year growth, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased [11] - In April 2025, among 70 large and medium - sized cities, the number of cities with rising new home prices decreased, and housing prices were generally stable but still in the adjustment phase [13] - China urged the US to correct its discriminatory chip export control measures [14] - In April 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales showed a certain pattern, and cross - border funds showed a net inflow [14] - A new round of RMB deposit rate cuts is about to take place [17] - The US Treasury Secretary warned that some US trading partners may face a significant increase in tariff rates [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [19] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends [19][20] - The money market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of domestic and foreign bonds also changed [21][22] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the US dollar index declined [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income is cautious about convertible bonds and suggests prioritizing low - price varieties [25] - CICC Fixed Income summarized the characteristics of urban investment issuers' 2024 annual reports [25] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating may have ended [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that there is no continuous tightening pressure on the capital market but short - term disturbances exist [26] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the bond market may focus on loose trading in the short term [27] - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the pressure on domestic growth stabilization may increase in Q2 [28] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with merger and acquisition concept stocks rising, and the North - bound 50 index hitting a record high [30] - Hong Kong stocks declined slightly, with pharmaceutical stocks active and Apple concept stocks under pressure [31] - Guizhou Moutai's 2024 annual general meeting responded to multiple hot topics [31] - Xinhua Insurance was approved to participate in the third - batch pilot of long - term insurance fund investment [31] - Leapmotor's Q1 performance was excellent, with revenue increasing significantly and the loss narrowing [32] - CATL's H - shares were listed, and Hengrui Medicine's H - shares were about to be listed [32]