能源化工日报-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand, with limited fundamental drivers and macro factors playing a dominant role. The expected rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to macro news [2]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory, alumina production, and exports [3]. - The rubber market has a weak upward drive due to strong supply expectations and weak downstream demand, despite some short - term price support [4][5]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate, with price support from fertilizer demand and price pressure from exports [6]. - The methanol market is expected to slow down its decline, with a reference range of 2200 - 2350 for the 2509 contract [7][8]. - The plastic market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 for the 2505 contract, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and other factors [9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 19, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4948 yuan/ton (-11), with the Changzhou market price at 4840 yuan/ton (0). The current macro sentiment has improved, and the inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the long - term, demand is weak and supply is expected to increase. The short - term tariff has eased, but its impact on demand remains. The expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 19, the SH09 contract closed at 2535 yuan/ton (-32). The national factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda increased. Supply pressure is large, and demand is affected by tariffs. The non - aluminum industry is in a slow - stocking phase, and the alumina industry has mixed production situations. The short - term market is oscillating, and the 09 contract should be shorted in the medium - term [3]. Rubber - On May 19, the RU price rose slightly due to the storage acquisition news. Short - term raw material prices are high, but supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak. The inventory in Qingdao has a mixed trend, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased [4][5]. Urea - The 2509 contract of urea closed at 1847 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. Supply is stable, and demand for fertilizer is expected to be released. Exports have some elasticity, but there is price pressure. The price is expected to oscillate, with support and resistance levels to be monitored [6]. Methanol - The 2509 contract of methanol closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 1.52%. Supply is relatively abundant, downstream demand is weak, and the price decline is expected to slow down, with a reference range of 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. Plastic - On May 19, the 2509 contract of plastic closed at 7238 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Supply has decreased due to maintenance, and exports have increased in the short - term. However, internal demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. The market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 [9].