长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to be oscillating strongly. The supply of cotton is tight this year, with the 09 contract likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. However, the 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang. The price is affected by the macro - environment, especially the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. It is recommended to hedge at the rebound high this year [1]. - PTA is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end is loose, the downstream is wait - and - see, and the short - term domestic PTA spot market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end has declined, and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, but there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound oscillation. Although the price has rebounded, considering the upcoming off - season in the terminal market and the end of upstream spring maintenance, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar is oscillating. Internationally, the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started, and the market has mixed expectations. Domestically, factors are also mixed, and the sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [3]. - Apples are in a high - level oscillation. The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high, but macro - risks need to be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - In April 2025, China's economic growth was stable. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service production index increased by 6%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1% [7]. - The US leading economic index in April 2025 dropped by 1% to 99.4 points, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [7]. 3.2 Each Variety's Fundamental Information Tracking Cotton - As of the end of April 2025, the commercial inventory was 415 tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 tons. If the monthly consumption is 65 tons, the commercial inventory will be 155 tons by the end of August, tighter than in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the price is likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. The 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang [1]. - On May 19, 2025, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. PTA - As of May 14, 2025, the average PTA processing interval in China was 390.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.68%. The domestic supply increased slightly, and the processing interval decreased significantly [8]. - As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate in China was 74.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 4.68%. The domestic PTA output was 129.67 tons, a decrease of 0.54 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7 tons from the same period last year [8][9]. Ethylene Glycol - As of May 14, 2025, the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The output was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% from the previous week [12]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, 2025, the weekly output of domestic polyester short - fiber was 16.69 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% [10][11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the average polymerization cost of domestic polyester short - fiber was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.35%. The industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) predicts that the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season will be 480 - 500 tons. The sugar production in the 2024/25 season as of May 15 was 2,574 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from the same period last year [11]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 547 tons. The expected sugar production in India in the 2024/25 season is 2,609 tons, lower than the previous forecast [11][12]. - In April 2025, China imported 13 tons of sugar, an increase of 7.57 tons year - on - year. From January to April, the total sugar imports were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 97.91 tons year - on - year [13]. Apple - As of May 14, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas of China was 195.10 tons, a decrease of 33.76 tons from the previous week. The current inventory is at a low level in the past five years [14]. - In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting fruit farmer's general - grade apples is 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 starting semi - commercial apples is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of fruit farmer's third - grade apples is 2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and the price of fruit farmer's 80 above general - grade apples is 2.8 - 3.5 yuan/jin [4][14].