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Core Views - The geopolitical situation causes repeated disturbances to oil prices, and the macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices, with short - term shocks expected [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a relatively good fundamental situation, with low - inventory levels before the peak season, and prices are expected to have upward elasticity [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation [5][8]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [9][11]. - The natural gas price in the US is expected to be weak in shock, while in Europe it is expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter due to future supply and demand patterns [14][16]. - The ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [17][18]. - The short - fiber price follows the raw material trend, and the market is currently weak [19][20]. - The bottle - chip market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - The styrene price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, with a short - term upward trend [23]. - The PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the caustic soda demand has uncertainty [26][27]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - The soda ash price is expected to decline, and the glass price is expected to be weak in shock [32][37]. - The urea price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - The methanol market is still mainly for rebound short - selling [40][42]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short term but faces challenges in the long term [43][46]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, and the corrugated paper market is expected to rebound [46][48]. - The paper pulp market has both positive and negative factors, and the natural rubber market has different trends in different regions [49][53]. - The butadiene rubber market should be observed, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [54][56]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2506 contract settled at $62.69, up $0.20/barrel, + 0.32%; Brent2507 contract settled at $65.54, up $0.13/barrel, + 0.20%; SC main contract 2507 rose to 461.4 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 465.4 yuan/barrel. Brent main - secondary spread was $0.72/barrel [1]. - Related News: There are developments in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [1]. - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices. Short - term shocks are expected, and the medium - term range of Brent is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term shocks, medium - term weakness; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2506 night - session closed at 3543 points (+ 1.17%), BU2509 night - session closed at 3470 points (+ 1.17%). Spot prices vary by region [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions have different trends, affected by factors such as refinery production and terminal demand [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The start - up rate and inventory rate are low, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The current fundamental situation is good, and the price has upward elasticity [3][5]. - Trading Strategy: High - level shocks; asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be strong in shock; options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2506 night - session closed at 4255 (- 0.21%), PG2507 night - session closed at 4193 (- 0.26%). Spot prices vary by region [5]. - Related News: The market in different regions has different trends, with supply and demand imbalances [6][7]. - Logic Analysis: The cost side is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak during the summer off - season. The fundamental situation is weak [8]. - Trading Strategy: Not clearly stated, but the overall situation is bearish [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract night - session closed at 3034 (+ 0.60%), LU07 night - session closed at 3566 (- 0.28%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads have declined [9]. - Related News: Russian refinery maintenance and Thai fuel oil sales information [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, LU7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high levels [11]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.133 (- 6.63%), TTF closed at 35.225 (+ 0.2%), JKM closed at 11.985 (+ 0.55%) [11]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak in shock. European gas prices are affected by cold weather and geopolitics, and are expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - Trading Strategy: HH is weak in shock, TTF is strong in shock [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6752 (+ 8/+ 0.12%), night - session closed at 6702 (- 50/- 0.74%). Spot prices have increased [14]. - Related News: The production status of PX devices and the sales situation of downstream products [14][15]. - Logic Analysis: The supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter [15]. - Trading Strategy: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [15]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4776 (+ 2/+ 0.04%), night - session closed at 4746 (- 30/- 0.63%). Spot prices and basis have changes [16]. - Related News: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [16]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter, maintaining a tight - balance situation [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [17]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4475 (+ 15/+ 0.34%), night - session closed at 4440 (- 35/- 0.78%). Spot basis and transaction prices are provided [17][18]. - Related News: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [18]. - Logic Analysis: The port inventory has declined slightly, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [18]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6544 (- 6/- 0.09%), night - session closed at 6528 (- 16/- 0.24%). Spot prices are stable [19]. - Related News: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [19][20]. - Logic Analysis: The price follows the raw material trend, and the current market is weak [20]. - Trading Strategy: High - level shocks; on hold for arbitrage and options [21]. Bottle - Chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 6088 (+ 6/+ 0.10%), night - session closed at 6066 (- 22/- 0.36%). Spot market transactions are light [21]. - Related News: The export quotation situation of bottle - chip factories [21]. - Logic Analysis: The market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2506 main contract closed at 7779 (+ 118/+ 1.54%), night - session closed at 7704 (- 75/- 0.96%). Spot prices and basis are provided [23]. - Related News: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [23]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is decreasing and the demand is increasing, the port inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [23]. - Trading Strategy: Shock - upward trend; on hold for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: SH509 and V2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. PVC and caustic soda spot prices have changes [24][26]. - Related News: The price change of Shandong Xinfag liquid chlorine [27]. - Logic Analysis: PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and caustic soda demand has uncertainty [27]. - Trading Strategy: PVC is short - term volatile and long - term bearish; caustic soda is on hold in the short term and bearish in the medium term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Polyolefin - Market Review: L2509 and PP2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. Spot prices in different regions have declined [29][30]. - Logic Analysis: The new capacity is being realized, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term shocks, medium - term bearish; on hold for arbitrage and options [31]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The main 09 contract of soda ash futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [32]. - Related News: The inventory situation, market adjustment, and device maintenance information [33]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to decline [33]. - Trading Strategy: Cost decline, price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [34][35]. Glass - Market Review: The main 09 contract of glass futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [35]. - Related News: The price change situation in different regions and the real - estate data [35][36]. - Logic Analysis: The production is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak in shock [36][37]. - Trading Strategy: Price is weak in shock; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [38]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures have declined, and spot prices are stable [38]. - Related News: The daily production and export - related information of urea [38][39]. - Logic Analysis: The production is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term callback long, not chasing; 91 positive spread enters at low levels, not chasing; sell put options [40]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures have declined, and spot prices vary by region [40]. - Related News: The production status of international methanol devices [40]. - Logic Analysis: The international supply is high, the import is expected to increase, the domestic supply is loose, and it is mainly for rebound short - selling [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Rebound short - selling; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [43]. Log - Market Review: The main contract is in low - level shocks, and spot prices are stable [43][45]. - Related News: The pre - arrival ship and inventory information of ports [44]. - Logic Analysis: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term but face challenges in the long term [45][46]. - Trading Strategy: Spot is stable and slightly weak, on hold; for aggressive investors, long at the previous low; pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [47]. Double - Offset Paper - Market Review: The market is slightly declining, with different trends for high - white and natural - white paper [46]. - Related News: The supply and demand situation of the market [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is weak, the cost support is stable, and the demand is weak [46]. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: The market prices of corrugated and box - board paper have increased [48]. - Related News: The price increase plan of scale paper mills and the demand situation of downstream [48]. - Logic Analysis: The tariff adjustment is expected to drive the demand rebound, but attention should be paid to relevant factors [48][49]. Paper Pulp - Market Review: The futures market is strong, and spot prices of different types of pulp have different trends [49]. - Related News: The production and sales data of the paper - making industry in 2024 [50]. - Logic Analysis: There are both positive and negative factors, and different data have different impacts on the single - side trading of SP [51]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for the main 07 contract of SP, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high; on hold for arbitrage [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: The prices of RU, JRU, NR, and TF have different changes, and spot prices are provided [51][52]. - Related News: The export data of Indonesian natural rubber [52]. - Logic Analysis: The import volume of domestic smoked - sheet rubber has increased, and the inventory situation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [53]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for the main 09 contract of RU, try short for the main 07 contract of NR; on hold for arbitrage and options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: The price of the main 07 contract of BR has declined, and spot prices are provided [54]. - Related News: The IPO information of Zhongce Rubber [55]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory situation of domestic butadiene rubber and butadiene is provided [56]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for the main 07 contract of BR, pay attention to the support at the previous Friday low; hold the spread of BR2507 - NR2507, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday low; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday high [56].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250520
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-20 02:37