商品期货早班车-20250520

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and different trends in the short and long term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - Copper: After Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, the dollar weakened, supporting copper. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot market is also tight after the contract change. The domestic inventory increased by 0.72 million tons this week. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly, while the aluminum product start - up rate decreases slightly. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Alumina: The alumina plant has more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreases. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production. It is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and it is recommended to buy call options [1]. - Lead: The consumption enters the off - season, and it is difficult to improve terminal orders. The lead price has reached a strong resistance level of 17,000 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate within a range in the medium term [1]. - Silicon: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term production in Sichuan has recovered significantly, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the demand growth rate falls short of expectations. The futures price is falling and the position reaches a new high. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - Polysilicon: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting lightly later [2]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore at home and abroad is still tight. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The building materials market has weak supply and demand, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The plate demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to close short positions, hold short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and try the reverse spread of rebar 7/10 [3]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand are neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [3]. - Coking Coal: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures are in a premium structure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The US soybeans are oscillating, and the domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and follow the international market in the medium term. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - Corn: The supply and demand are tightening marginally. The spot is weak, and the futures price oscillates and consolidates [5]. - Sugar: The market expects an enhanced supply - surplus pattern in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The futures price is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound [5]. - Cotton: The international cotton price rebounds slightly, and the domestic cotton price oscillates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Palm Oil: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the export improves. It is in a seasonal weak stage, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [5]. - Eggs: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Pigs: The supply increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - Apples: The new - season apple production is expected to decrease due to weather, and the price is at a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies as the supply will be loose [7]. - PVC: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - PTA: PX and PTA maintain the de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the spread and be cautious about unilateral trading [8]. - Rubber: Affected by the rumored purchase and storage and slight de - stocking of inventory, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - Glass: It oscillates weakly, and it is recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - PP: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - MEG: The short - term supply and demand are de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions [9]. - Crude Oil: The trading strategy is to short on rallies. Pay attention to the OPEC meeting and the US - Iran negotiation [9]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to do long - spread trading [9]. - Soda Ash: The number of maintenance increases, and the downstream demand weakens. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - Caustic Soda: It is expected to stop falling and stabilize as the downstream alumina price rises [9].