五矿期货文字早评-20250520

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market shows a mixed trend, with some indices rising and some falling. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on market risk preference has weakened, and it is recommended to buy certain stock index futures on dips. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure due to tariff negotiations, but the subsequent capital supply is expected to be loose. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the expected release of geopolitical risks and the cautious attitude of the Fed. The prices of various non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index unchanged, the ChiNext Index down 0.33%, and the North - bound 50 up 2.37%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 108.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount decreased by 1.883 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 11.70bp to 1.6540%. [2] - Macro News: In April, China's social consumer goods retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The 30 - year US Treasury yield exceeded 5%, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy IF stock index long positions on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose, with increases of 0.37%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - News: In April, economic data showed certain disturbances due to tariffs, with structural differentiation. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 9.2 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, but considering the decline in capital interest rates after reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 758.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.25% to 8111.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold and silver fell slightly [7]. - Market Outlook: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine shows new signs of progress, and the Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy stance. International gold prices are expected to continue to correct in the short term [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for gold, and pay attention to the 700 yuan/gram support level. Silver is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper oscillated and rebounded. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly. The short - term rebound space of copper prices may be limited [10]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum fell under pressure. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory decline slowed down. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunities of aluminum [11]. - Zinc: The price of zinc fell slightly. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [12]. - Lead: The price of lead fell slightly. The regenerative lead enterprise's operating rate continued to decline, and the short - term lead price showed a strong oscillation [13]. - Nickel: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [14]. - Tin: The price of tin rose slightly. The supply of tin is expected to loosen in the medium term. If the downstream demand remains weak, the center of tin prices may move down [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate fell. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the short - term disk may run weakly [16]. - Alumina: The price of alumina rose. The mine and supply side are disturbed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. - Stainless Steel: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The cost support is enhanced, but the terminal procurement is still cautious. The short - term may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [18]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The price of steel showed a weak oscillation. The apparent demand for rebar increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil may show a strong oscillation in the short term. The long - term demand is still under pressure [20][21]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore fell slightly. The supply increased, and the demand for molten iron is expected to decline. The short - term price of iron ore will oscillate [22][23]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The price of glass is expected to be weak in the medium term. The supply of soda ash is expected to decrease, but the inventory pressure is still large, and the disk is expected to be weak [24][25]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The demand for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may continue to fall. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - Rubber: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. There is an expectation of rubber storage and production reduction, but the demand is in the off - season. The market has different views on the rise and fall of prices [33]. - Crude Oil: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose, and the INE crude oil price fell. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [36][37]. - Methanol: The price of methanol fell. The production profit is high, but the downstream performance is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [38]. - Urea: The price of urea fell. The supply and demand are both strong, but the price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. - PVC: The price of PVC rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but attention should be paid to risks [41][42]. - PTA: The price of PTA rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to be strong. The processing fee has support, but attention should be paid to risks [43]. - Para - Xylene: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to risks [44]. - Polyethylene PE: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain an oscillation. The supply pressure increases in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [45][46]. - Polypropylene PP: The price of polypropylene is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The price of hogs is mainly stable, with a weakening trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [49]. - Eggs: The price of eggs is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts [50]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of domestic soybean meal fell. The short - term supply of soybeans is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [51][52]. - Oils and Fats: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate weakly. The production of palm oil is recovering, and the US biodiesel policy may be lower than expected [53][56]. - Sugar: The price of sugar oscillated. The international market supply tension may ease, and the domestic sugar price may weaken [57][58]. - Cotton: The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory is being depleted [59].