Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a rise in US Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar index, with overall global risk appetite increasing. In China, April's domestic demand slowed and was lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US helped boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious short - term long position recommended; government bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound while fluctuating, with a cautious long position recommended; precious metals are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Supported by sectors such as port shipping, real estate, and food processing, the domestic stock market remained basically flat. In April, domestic demand slowed, but exports were strong, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US helped boost risk appetite. A cautious short - term long position is recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuated upward on Monday. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating drove up safe - haven demand, and the weakening US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. For gold, if it pulls back to the next integer level, a ratio spread structure can be used to build a long - term position. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions supporting investment demand and safe - haven attributes, but manufacturing weakness and tariff supply - chain impacts suppressing industrial consumption expectations, a short - term wait - and - see approach is maintained [3]. Black Metals - Steel: On Monday, domestic steel futures and spot prices continued to decline weakly, and market trading volume was low. In April, macroeconomic data was weak, and real demand remained weak. Although the apparent consumption of the five major varieties increased month - on - month, the absolute volume did not exceed the previous high. Steel supply will remain at a high level in the short term, but in the off - season, future demand may not be sufficient to absorb the current high production. A short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4][5]. - Iron Ore: On Monday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to be weak. Although iron - water production is currently at a high level, it is likely to decline in the future. This week, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month, but arrivals decreased. In the second quarter, shipments and arrivals may increase. A medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Monday, the spot price of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat. Last week, the output of the five major steel varieties decreased, weakening the demand for ferroalloys. The supply of both silicon manganese and silicon iron continued to decline. A short - term range - bound trend is expected [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is concerned about the cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. A short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and fluctuated without breaking through the previous high. Supply is at a low level, downstream demand has been boosted to some extent, and inventory transfer and destocking are showing signs. It is recommended to follow crude oil and observe the destocking situation in the short term [7]. - PX: PX is in a tight - balance situation due to many maintenance activities and the upward trend of the polyester sector. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. - PTA: There are uncertainties in new orders from the US, and the domestic sales market has entered the off - season. Downstream production cuts may be implemented, and there is a short - term risk of correction [8][9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Due to unexpected early maintenance of leading plants, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased in the short term, and inventory has been destocked. However, downstream low - profit operations may lead to reduced production, and there is a risk of correction in the short term [9]. - Short - fiber: Polyester prices remained high and fluctuated, and short - fiber prices followed with a slight decline. In the short term, downstream production will remain stable, and short - fiber prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [9]. - Methanol: The market price of methanol in Taicang is weak, and the basis is stable. Supply has improved marginally, but overall supply is still sufficient, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [10]. - PP: The domestic PP market price is weak. Although there is a short - term inventory transfer due to tariff benefits, supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [10]. - LLDPE: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. Although there are some positive factors such as improved export orders, overall pressure has not been effectively relieved, and the increase in price is limited [11]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is relatively stable, with some local price adjustments. In the short and medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, prices are under pressure due to high production and limited demand [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The overall import tariff rate in the US may increase. Copper social inventory is increasing, and processing fees are at a historical low. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate, and in the medium term, opportunities to short should be sought [12]. - Aluminum: Market optimism has faded. Although there is a short - term effect of pre - exporting due to tariff reduction, demand is expected to weaken marginally in the medium term. A short position can be considered [12]. - Tin: Supply is constrained, and smelting capacity utilization is low. Demand is weak, and it is expected to enter the off - season. In the short term, tin prices will fluctuate, with support from tight supply and pressure from weak demand [13]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Good export data of US soybeans have supported the market, and the new - season sowing progress is fast. There is no strong driving force for price increases [14]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The开机 rate of oil mills is expected to remain above 60% this week. It is expected that the decline in the basis of soybean meal will be limited, but there is a risk of a decline in futures [15][16]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: The inventory of soybean oil is increasing, and the basis is weakening. The inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing, but the market is in the off - season. The fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic palm oil inventory has shown a turning point, and the import profit is still negative. Malaysia has reduced the export tariff, while Indonesia has increased the special export tax [17]. - Pigs: After the May holiday, terminal demand is weak, and supply is stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in futures [18]. - Corn: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices have declined, and the basis has slightly shrunk. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are expected to remain stable in the range of 2300 - 2400 [18].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250520
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-05-20 03:05