五矿期货早报有色金属-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, the macro - economic situation is complex with concerns such as high tariffs and weakening economic data in the US. Industry - specific factors like raw material supply, inventory levels, and demand also impact metal prices. Some metals face upward price pressure due to supply disruptions, while others may decline due to oversupply or weak demand [1][3][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper prices rose 0.81% to $9516/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78160 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 38.8%. In China, social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spot in Shanghai shifted to a premium over futures. The short - term upward space of copper prices may be limited due to factors such as weak macro - sentiment and weakening price support [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell 1.95% to $2436/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20040 yuan/ton. LME registered warrants increased, putting pressure on prices. The total inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased at a slower pace. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunity of aluminum [3]. Lead - The SHFE lead index fell 0.09% to 16871 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks on May 12, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. The medium - term SHFE lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - The SHFE zinc index fell 0.42% to 22285 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. A Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to stop production in June, which may boost zinc prices sentimentally. However, there is still a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to factors such as increasing inventory [6]. Tin - On May 19, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.04%. The supply side of tin is currently tight but is expected to loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may move down [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. The cost side of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.24%. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the market may run weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as mine operations and inventory changes [11]. Alumina - On May 19, the alumina index rose 8.1% to 3123 yuan/ton. Due to continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12965 yuan/ton on Friday. The cost support is enhanced, but terminal procurement is still cautious. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].