聚烯烃：LL-PP是反弹还是反转？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The LL - PP spread has completed bottom - building, and the upward breakthrough of the platform is a reversal signal. This is supported by three aspects: high LPG valuation on the cost side, the largest annual production mismatch between LL and PP in June on the supply side, and the decline in PP export volume year - on - year [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cost Side - After the large - scale commissioning of PDH - made PP plants since 2022, the impact of coal - based processes on PP has gradually weakened, and LPG price fluctuations have become the most important marginal variable on the PP cost side, while the PE cost side is still dominated by crude - oil - based processes [3]. - In 2023, the low water level of the Panama Canal affected the LPG volume shipped from the US East to China. From July to September 2023, the LPG price rose from 3,800 yuan/ton to 5,660 yuan/ton (nearly 50% increase), the PP price rose from 6,900 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton (about 17% increase), and the LL - PP spread dropped from 855 yuan/ton in July to 392 yuan/ton (a decline of - 54%) [3]. - Currently, LPG valuation is much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha. Even if the OPEC+ meeting in June decides to increase production and cause the crude oil price to decline, LPG, as a high - valuation variety, should fall more, driving a greater decline in PP and ultimately widening the LL - PP spread [3]. Supply Side - According to the latest industry commissioning data, the total planned commissioning capacity of the PP09 contract is up to 3.7 million tons, with nearly 2.2 million tons in June. In contrast, LL has only 1.4 million tons of planned commissioning capacity for the whole year, and only 200,000 tons in June [12]. - Comparing the commissioning mismatch in the first half of 2023 (from May to July 2023, PP planned to commission 2.3 million tons and LL 0 tons, and the LL - PP09 contract rose from 245 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton), the commissioning mismatch in June this year is very similar. It is expected that the expectation of the widening LL - PP spread will start to be traded at the end of May and the beginning of June, and from July to September, the commissioning and the seasonal peak season will magnify the LL - PP spread to a high point [12]. PP Export End - In 2024, the PP export volume doubled year - on - year, with the monthly average export volume nearly doubling to 180,000 tons/month. However, this year, affected by the "tariff sanctions" policy in the US, the PP export volume has declined year - on - year, and the marginal bullish factor has failed, which supports going long on the widening LL - PP spread [14].