新能源及有色金属日报：碳酸锂盘面不断创新低，关注下游接货意愿-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of oversupply, with weak cost support due to falling lithium ore prices. Despite some recent strengthening in downstream purchasing willingness on the futures market, the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The report recommends short - selling strategies under the current market conditions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 61,800 yuan/ton and closed at 61,180 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 224,064 lots, and the open interest was 335,807 lots, an increase of 7,066 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 566,765 lots, a decrease of 16,660 lots, and the total trading volume decreased by 112,494 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.5, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 60 lots to 36,684 lots [1]. - According to SMM data, on May 19, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 - 65,100 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,650 - 63,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate is oscillating downward. The falling lithium ore prices have weakened cost support, and with no mine production cuts, the supply is strong. Given limited downstream demand growth, the oversupply situation is hard to change [1]. Strategy - With falling spot prices, declining ore prices, and average consumption growth, and a large number of warehouse receipts registered, the lithium price is hitting new lows under weak macro and fundamental conditions. It is necessary to monitor downstream purchasing volume. - Unilateral strategy: Sell - hedging on price rallies. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [2].