中辉期货日刊-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - LPG: Oscillating [1] - L: Oscillating [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with views ranging from bullish, bearish, to oscillating, based on various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost - profit situations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.27%, Brent up 0.20%, and SC up 0.07% [3]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors and macro - economic factors are in a tug - of - war. Supply is affected by Russian export policies and global supply forecasts, while demand has stable growth. Inventory data shows changes in US commercial and strategic reserves [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to factors like trade wars and OPEC+ expansion. Short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, oscillating. SC to focus on [455 - 475] [5]. LPG - Market Review: On May 19, the PG main contract closed at 4264 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [6]. - Basic Logic: Upstream oil prices rebounded, but LPG fundamentals are bearish. Import costs decreased, downstream PDH开工率 declined, and port inventories increased. As of May 19, the number of warehouse receipts increased [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term, it is bearish as it is linked to upstream crude oil. Technically, pay attention to the strong support at 4200, and it will oscillate weakly. Hold short positions. PG to focus on [4240 - 4275] [8]. L - Market Review: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - Basic Logic: In the short term, the cost support from crude oil may weaken. Supply pressure remains due to high social inventories despite upcoming device maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, but export orders may improve. In May, device maintenance and short - term export replenishment will lead to oscillating prices, while the high - production cycle will limit upward space in the medium term [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for short - selling opportunities. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [11]. PP - Market Review: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - Basic Logic: Policy support exists, but the market is constrained by supply - demand imbalance. In May, there are fewer device maintenance plans and new device launches, and demand is in the off - season. The market will be weakly sorted [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [14]. PVC - Market Review: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - Basic Logic: The spot market is weak. Supply is expected to remain high, demand is in the off - season, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade policies. Warehouse receipts increased, real - estate data is weak, and device restarts may increase production. The market will oscillate weakly [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Participate in the short - term. Be aware of macro - systemic risks [17]. PX - Market Review: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton (-18) [18]. - Basic Logic: PX device maintenance plans have reduced supply pressure. However, PTA device maintenance has weakened demand. Although inventory is high, the fundamentals improved in May, and it will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX to focus on [6660, 6820] [20]. PTA - Market Review: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton (-24) [21]. - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance has reduced supply pressure. Downstream polyester has high operating loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has room to increase. It will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy mentioned other than the price range [21]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Review: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton (-3), and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton (-1) [23]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance has increased, reducing supply pressure. The expected arrival volume is low. Downstream polyester has high loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased slightly. It will oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG to focus on [4410, 4500] [25]. Glass - Market Review: The spot market price decreased, the decline of the futures price slowed, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [27]. - Basic Logic: After the central bank's "double - cut" and the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, the real - estate fundamentals weakened in April. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply contraction and demand decline. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is weak. In the short term, it will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and in the medium term, weak fundamentals will limit upward space [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG to focus on [1000, 1040] [28]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The spot price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged, the futures price oscillated weakly, the main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [30]. - Basic Logic: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but new capacity expectations will lead to an oversupply situation. Demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. Although some enterprises' export orders increased, the high - inventory and low - demand situation will continue to suppress the market [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA to focus on [1260, 1290] [31]. Methanol - Market Review: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton (-50), and the main contract 09 closed at 2284 yuan/ton (-36). The basis in East China and ports changed [32]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is high as device maintenance is ending and import expectations are being fulfilled. Demand has improved as MTO device开工率 has stopped falling. Social inventory has decreased, but cost support from coal is weak. Overall, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is bearish on rebounds [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA to focus on [2250, 2300] [34]. Urea - Market Review: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is high as maintenance devices are restarting. It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, but industrial demand is neutral, and export growth is fast. Cost fluctuates slightly, and there is bottom support. The export policy is bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to the export quota policy and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle. UR to focus on [1830 - 1880] [1]. Asphalt - Market Review: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - Basic Logic: Oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and both supply and demand increased. Bullish factors include rising oil prices, falling social inventory, and increasing开工率 of modified and building asphalt. Bearish factors are high cracking spreads and increasing supply. It will oscillate strongly [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: BU to focus on [3520 - 3565] [1].