新能源及有色金属日报：下游备货积极性较差，铅价震荡回落-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2506 contract is in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$4.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 75 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, changing by -10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,893 lots, changing by -5,591 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 27,388 lots, changing by -1,174 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. As the lead price continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was dull [2] Inventory - On May 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, changing by 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 246,350 tons, changing by -1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]