农产品日报-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - Hogs: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]