聚烯烃日报：下游刚需采购，聚烯烃弱势整理-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating - Plastic is cautiously bearish for unilateral trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand side of polyolefins has weak follow - up, with insufficient terminal support. It is mainly for rigid demand procurement, resulting in a weak consolidation of polyolefins. The number of maintenance devices has increased, and the PE maintenance loss has reached a new high this year, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand margin. Although the propane price has dropped, the production profit of PDH - made PP still has a large loss, and many PDH devices are under maintenance. The restart time of shut - down PDH devices is undetermined. Under macro - level benefits, the inventory of polyolefin production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. However, the downstream demand is about to enter the traditional off - season, and the agricultural film operation rate continues to decline [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7238 yuan/ton (+2), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7078 yuan/ton (-15), the LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (-20), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+0), the PP East China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL North China basis is 162 yuan/ton (-22), the LL East China basis is 182 yuan/ton (-2), and the PP East China basis is 102 yuan/ton (-35) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - The PE operation rate is 79.4% (-4.7%), the PP operation rate is 76.6% (-3.2%). The PE oil - based production profit is 584.3 yuan/ton (-102.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 154.3 yuan/ton (-102.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 279.2 yuan/ton (-53.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 67.4 yuan/ton (-35.6), the PP import profit is - 474.3 yuan/ton (-25.7), and the PP export profit is 15.3 US dollars/ton (+3.1) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operation rate is 16.7% (-2.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operation rate is 48.7% (+1.1%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operation rate is 45.3% (+0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operation rate is 59.9% (+2.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Under macro - level benefits, the inventory of polyolefin production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]