化工日报：市场情绪回落，关注成本支撑-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PTA futures market saw a decline on Monday, with a fair trading atmosphere in the spot market and a slight loosening of the spot basis after strengthening [1]. - In the cost - end, as summer approaches, demand will seasonally increase, and refinery operating rates will rise. The market can maintain a tight balance in Q3, but an oversupply situation is expected in Q4. Short - term attention should be paid to the developments in the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine situations [2]. - Gasoline cracking has rebounded recently but is seasonally weaker than in the past two years. The blending demand for aromatics this year is not promising, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm for aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $273/ton (a decrease of $9.38/ton compared to the previous period). Due to recent macro - positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants, the supply - demand outlook for the near - term PX has tightened, and the price has been supported. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will gradually restart, but PX will continue to be destocked due to the commissioning of new PTA plants [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 414 yuan/ton (a decrease of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Supported by strong demand from downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to be significantly destocked in May, and the supply will gradually return later [3]. - The polyester operating rate is 95.0% (an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period). With the improvement of the macro - environment and the rebound of raw material prices, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have quickly recovered. After the Sino - US negotiations achieved positive results and tariffs were reduced, textile and clothing orders improved significantly, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3]. - The PF spot production profit is - 8 yuan/ton (a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Although the market outlook has improved due to tariff benefits, downstream customers are cautious due to the rapid rise in raw material prices. Future attention should be paid to the cost trend of polyester raw materials [3]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 314 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With most domestic polyester bottle - chip plants in operation, the market supply is gradually increasing, and the market price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the news of plant maintenance due to rising costs [3]. - In terms of strategies, PX/PTA/PF/PR are expected to be strong in the short - term. After consecutive rapid increases, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer low, and the absolute prices have returned to the level before the corresponding tariffs. The market sentiment has declined. Future attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the cost support from crude oil. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short - term, but there is a demand for profit - taking, and the risk of chasing high prices should be vigilant. For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PX main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PTA East China spot basis; and the short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - gloss pure - white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [46][48][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between original and regenerated fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][94][96]