HTSC·2025-05-20 02:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The market is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on real estate companies that have abundant resources and stable operations [1]. - The white list mechanism is alleviating financial pressures on real estate companies, while the market shows signs of price stabilization and seasonal sales decline [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery pace in core cities, particularly first-tier cities, and recommends companies with strong credit, good locations, and quality products [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Pressure - In April, national real estate development investment decreased by 11% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 10% from January to April [2][12]. - The land market saw a 19% year-on-year decrease in residential land supply in April, while transaction area and amount increased by 23% [2]. - New construction starts fell by 22% year-on-year in April, with a cumulative decline of 24% for the first four months [2][21]. - The completion area in April dropped by 28% year-on-year, reflecting a cumulative decline of 17% [2][29]. Sales and Price Trends - In April, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, with a seasonal decline observed [3][34]. - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 3.2% decline [3][50]. - The number of cities with rising second-hand home prices decreased from 10 in March to 5 in April [3][50]. Financial Position of Real Estate Companies - In April, the funds available to real estate companies decreased by 5% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans down by 13% [4]. - Domestic loans increased by 15% year-on-year, with the cumulative growth for the first four months at 0.8% [4]. - The white list project loan approvals rose significantly to 6.7 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing support for cash flow relief [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [5]. - Hong Kong developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Yuexiu Property [5]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, and Poly Property [5].