统计局2025年1-4月房地产数据点评：4月地产基本面边际转弱，期待后续政策出台

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][69] Core Views - The real estate market showed signs of marginal weakening in April, with various indicators experiencing expanded declines. The expectation is for subsequent policy measures to stabilize the market [4][69] - In the first four months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. New housing starts and completions also saw significant declines [3][59] - The sales performance in April was weak, with a notable increase in the scale of decline. The sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing both decreased compared to the previous year [5][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the total sales amount of commercial housing was 27,035 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year. In April alone, the sales amount was 6,237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [5][19] - The sales area for new commercial housing in the first four months was 28,262 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, with April's sales area at 6,393 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [5][19] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first four months was 9,566 yuan per square meter, down 0.4% year-on-year. In April, the average price was 9,756 yuan per square meter, down 4.7% year-on-year [19] - The price decline for new homes in 70 cities continued to narrow year-on-year, while the second-hand housing prices saw an increase in the month-on-month decline [19][29] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, with April's investment at 7,826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [38] - Funds available to real estate companies were 32,596 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with April's funds at 7,867 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [38] Construction Activity - New housing starts in the first four months totaled 17,836 million square meters, down 23.8% year-on-year, with April's new starts at 4,840 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1% [59] - The completion area for housing in the first four months was 15,648 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year, with April's completions at 2,588 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9% [59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite the marginal weakening of the real estate fundamentals, there are still opportunities for speculation in real estate stocks. Specific recommendations include Beike-W, Wo Ai Wo Jia, Greentown China, and China Overseas Hong Kong Group [4][69]