光大期货软商品日报-20250520

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.22% to 65.68 cents per pound, and CF509 fell 0.19% to 13,390 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 1,911 lots to 574,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,474 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,566 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan. Internationally, the recent disturbances are more on the macro - level, with the U.S. dollar index weakening and the U.S. cotton price rising, but the absolute price is still relatively low. Domestically, after the preliminary Sino - U.S. tariff agreement, Zhengzhou cotton futures entered a new oscillation range. In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 108.8 billion yuan, up 2.2% year - on - year, but the growth rate was seasonally lower and still lower than the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales. If there is no unexpected macro impact, the market focus will shift to new cotton. The new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and this year is expected to be a bumper harvest, so there is still pressure on the supply side. In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of Zhengzhou cotton are relatively weak, and it is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to weather and macro disturbances [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 979,100 tons year - on - year, a decline of 77.86%. As of April in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.7401 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 1.3773 million tons year - on - year, a decline of 44.18%. Affected by the supply outlook, the raw sugar futures price was weak. Domestic sales were average, mainly for rigid demand, and the price lacked driving force, showing a narrow - range oscillation. It should be treated with an interval approach, waiting patiently for trading opportunities [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: The view is "oscillation". The price of ICE U.S. cotton rose, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell slightly. The open interest increased. The cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index decreased. Macro factors affect the international market, and the domestic market is affected by the tariff agreement and terminal demand. New cotton supply may bring pressure, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - Sugar: The view is "oscillation". Spot quotes were stable. Import data showed a mixed trend. Raw sugar futures were weak, and domestic sales were for rigid demand, with prices oscillating in a narrow range [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 190 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,176 yuan, down 11 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,474 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,566 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main contract basis was 307 yuan, up 2 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,120 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - On May 19, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,555, an increase of 7 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 315 [3]. - On May 19, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,474 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,586 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,605 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,714 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On May 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 54.8, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.2, a decrease of 0.2; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 53.1, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 30.7, a decrease of 0.2 [3]. - On May 19, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,120 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. - On May 19, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,836, an increase of 256 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 91 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts include cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, 1% tariff quota internal - external spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][11][13][15]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards related to sugar analysis [18]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's senior analyst title for textiles [20].