持续上涨驱动不足，板块整体震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has limited upward - driving forces and will likely oscillate. Although the market sentiment has improved due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, factors such as high export tariffs, uncertain supply and demand, and a lack of strong incentives in the planting end restrict the cotton price's rebound space [1][2][3] - The sugar market's overall trend is mainly influenced by the international market. Although domestic sugar prices are currently supported, if Brazil's high - yield expectations are gradually realized, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to follow the decline of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market's price is affected by macro - emotions and supply - demand relationships. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the high inventory and weak demand will keep the pulp futures price in a low - level oscillation in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,474 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Import: In April 2025, China's cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 280,000 tons from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and the tariff policy's uncertainty will increase after 90 days [2] - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties, and the supply - side weather factors currently lack a strong narrative [2] - Domestic: The cotton - planting area has increased slightly, the cotton seedlings are growing well, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not declined sharply. However, it has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is weakening [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate strongly, but the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,853 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,910 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - Import: In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons from the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the second half of April was lower than expected, but most institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the raw sugar price is under pressure [5] - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales and production data are favorable, and the short - term import volume is limited. However, the long - term import pressure is expected to increase, and the price increase space is restricted [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, focusing on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,390 yuan/ton yesterday, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market: The prices of imported pulp in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some loosening [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased the pulp price's volatility, but the improvement of Sino - US relations has promoted the pulp price's rebound [7] - Supply: The decrease in the foreign - exchange quotation has weakened the cost support, and the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8]