GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-20 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net financing of local government bonds reached 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending, which is expected to support demand in the steel sector [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, slightly down by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by uncertainties from US-China tariff disputes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 6.6% to 125.09 million tons [7]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Export and Import Dynamics - Steel exports in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, benefiting from price advantages [3][7]. - Iron ore imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 103.14 million tons in April 2025, although overall iron ore imports for the first four months decreased by 5.5% [7]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing to support the economy [3]. - The report suggests that with the anticipated improvement in demand and supply-side adjustments, the long-term fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to improve [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the current economic conditions and demand recovery [8][9].