CMS·2025-05-20 04:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Vanke A, indicating a potential upside in the stock price despite current challenges [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was negatively impacted by a further decline in development gross margins, resulting in losses. However, the major shareholder continues to provide support to help the company manage its maturing debts [1][10]. - Vanke A is actively engaging in resource revitalization, achieving a total of 40.9 billion in cash recovery from 24 transactions in Q1 2025 [1][10]. - The company is facing significant downward pressure on sales, with projected EPS for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E at -1.35, -0.52, and -0.14 respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of -5.0, -13.2, and -49.2 [1][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 465.739 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to drop to 343.176 billion, reflecting a 26% decrease [1][11]. - The company reported a net profit of 12.163 billion in 2023, which is expected to turn into a loss of 49.478 billion in 2024, marking a 507% decline [1][11]. - The debt situation remains critical, with a total interest-bearing debt of 361.6 billion as of Q1 2025, and a net debt ratio of 86.7% [1][10]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Vanke A's total sales amounted to 34.9 billion, a 40% decrease year-on-year, with a sales area of 2.54 million square meters, down 35% [1][10]. - The average sales price per square meter was 13,748, reflecting a 7% decline compared to the previous year [1][10]. Shareholder Support - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has been actively supporting the company in managing its debt obligations, providing loans totaling 70 billion to assist with debt repayments [1][10]. - The company successfully completed the repayment of 98.9 billion in public debts for Q1 2025, aided by the support from its major shareholder [1][10].