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第一创业晨会纪要-20250520
First Capital Securities·2025-05-20 05:09

Macro Economic Group - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding WIND's expectation of 5.2%, but down 1.6 percentage points from March. The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to April is 6.45%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than last year's total [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April nominally grew by 5.1%, lower than WIND's expectation of 5.5%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.7% from January to April, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than last year [3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth from January to April is 4.0%, below WIND's expectation of 4.3%, but still 1.0 percentage points higher than last year [3] - The trade surplus for January to April reached USD 368.8 billion, an increase of USD 113.9 billion year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.7% [4] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Leap Motor reported a loss attributable to equity holders of RMB 130 million in Q1 2025, significantly reduced from a loss of RMB 1.01 billion in the same period of 2024. Revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187.1%, driven by a 162% increase in vehicle sales to 87,552 units [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of 14.9%, compared to -1.4% in the same period of 2024 and 13.3% in Q4 2024. The collaboration with Stellantis in Europe provides a competitive advantage for Leap Motor in the European market [7] Consumer Group - In April 2025, the online sales of trendy toys and anime products reached RMB 1.31 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48%, continuing the rapid growth trend from Q1 [10] - Domestic trendy toy brands performed well, with Pop Mart's online sales increasing by 287% year-on-year, and LABUBU series products experiencing a buying frenzy in overseas markets [11] - During the 618 shopping festival, various e-commerce platforms adjusted their promotional strategies, with Tmall starting its campaign earlier and simplifying discount structures, which is expected to significantly reduce return rates [12]