尿素早评：回落空间有限-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the decline space of urea is limited, and it recommends going long on urea on dips. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, and the export profit is considerable due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Additionally, domestic agricultural demand provides support as the peak season for top - dressing of crops like corn is coming, and inventory pressure has significantly reduced, making a sharp decline in urea prices unlikely [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On May 19, compared with May 16, UR01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton, UR05 in Shandong decreased by 19 yuan/ton (-0.95%), UR05 in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.03%), UR09 decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.60%), and another price decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-2.75%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Henan, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%); in Hebei, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.55%); in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1]. - Spread and Price Difference: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1858 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1864 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1835 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1847 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1847 yuan/ton, and the position was 221735 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The strategy is to go long on dips. However, it should be noted that if the price rises too fast in the short term, policies may change again [1].