集运日报：欧洲港口拥堵加剧，安特卫普24小时罢工，盘面高位震荡，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - European port congestion has intensified, with a 24 - hour strike in Antwerp. The market is oscillating at a high level, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for pull - back opportunities [1]. - The addition of tariffs as a trade negotiation tool adds significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although shipping companies are trying to hold up prices, the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [2]. - The 2508 contract has become the main contract, possibly due to the explosive shipment of US - bound goods, driving up European and American freight rates. Shipping companies have successively announced price increases, and bullish sentiment has risen. Although the SCFIS index has slightly declined, the market is still oscillating upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Conditions - May 16th Shipping Indexes: The NCFI (comprehensive index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US - West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18%. The SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points; the CCFI (comprehensive index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US - West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [1]. - May 19th Futures Market: The main contract 2508 closed at 2387.9, up 5.84%, with a trading volume of 85,100 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 5292 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - Eurozone April Data: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - China March Data: The manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - US April Data: The S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. Strategies - Short - term Strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate situation. However, the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, focus on positive spreads [3]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [3]. Contract Rules - Price Limits: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the price limit is 16% [3]. - Margin: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the company's margin requirement is 26% [3]. - Daily Open - Position Limit: For all contracts from 2506 - 2604, the daily open - position limit is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical and Policy Events - Israel's prime minister has approved the immediate resumption of humanitarian aid to Gaza [4]. - The new US government's tariff policy has had a greater negative impact on the US and global economies than expected, and has brought uncertainty to the operations of shipping companies [4].