固定收益点评报告：新旧动能转换

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery in this round is better than expected, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the subsequent physical quantity data will weaken. The production and investment of high - tech industries are strong during the transformation of new and old driving forces, but there are still problems such as insufficient demand, volume - for - price strategy, and weak private investment in some industries. The real estate market may remain stable at a low level, and the progress of tariffs eases some pressure. The annual nominal economic growth target in 2025 is around 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. Considering the trend of stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited, and the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge if the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above the lower limit (1.7%) of the predicted range [6] Section Summaries Production - In April 2025, the added value of large - scale industries in China maintained a relatively high growth rate of 6.1% (previous value: 7.7%), with manufacturing and mining as the main driving forces, growing at 6.6% and 5.7% respectively. High - tech manufacturing (10%) and equipment manufacturing (9.8%) in the manufacturing industry maintained high - level production. The export delivery value growth rate dropped significantly to 0.9% from the previous 7.7%. The national service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value [2] Consumption - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from March. Catering revenue increased by 5.2% (previous value: 5.6%). Optional consumption such as cultural office supplies, home appliances, gold and silver jewelry, furniture, and communication equipment maintained double - digit high - growth rates. However, the growth rate of automobile retail was low, dropping by 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, and there was still a volume - for - price problem. Grains and oils maintained double - digit high - growth rates, and the sustainability of consumption - level recovery needs verification. Inflation data still reflected the problem of stronger supply than demand [3] Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (previous value: 4.2%). The manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value. Industries such as transportation equipment, automobile manufacturing, and general equipment had relatively high growth rates. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.8%, the same as the previous value. The growth rate of private investment was 0.2% (previous value: 0.4%), remaining at a relatively high level since the second half of 2024. After excluding real - estate investment, the private investment growth rate was 5.8% (previous value: 6.0%), the lowest since 2023. Real - estate investment declined significantly, with a growth rate of - 10.3% (previous value: - 9.9%). The decline in real - estate sales area continued to narrow to - 2.8% (previous value: - 3.0%), and the growth rate of unsold commercial housing inventory continued to decline. The decline in new construction, construction, and completion areas was relatively stable, and the year - on - year decline in new construction area bottomed out and rebounded. The real - estate climate index remained at a phased high [4][5] Asset Allocation - The economic recovery is better than expected, but some industries have problems such as insufficient demand and weak private investment. The real - estate market may remain stable at a low level. The nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%. Considering the stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is limited, and the trading value of bonds may emerge if the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.7% [6]