高盛：GOAL Kickstart-又是债券 -从增长到对长期利率的担忧

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating with a focus on diversification in asset allocation and an overweight position in cash [7]. Core Insights - Investor concerns have shifted from growth to long-dated rates, with US 30-year rates nearing 5%, reflecting a trend towards higher yields [2]. - The report indicates that the US 10-year yield is expected to reach 4.5% and 30-year yields at 4.9% by the end of 2025, suggesting a less dovish policy path for central banks [2]. - The equity risk premium is currently low, and further increases in bond yields may negatively impact equities, especially given the ongoing fiscal concerns [7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Risky assets have shown recovery, with the S&P 500 up 5% week-over-week and Nasdaq up over 6.5% [1]. - Gold prices decreased by 5% week-over-week to around $3,200 per troy ounce [1]. Bond Market Dynamics - Long-dated yields are at multi-decade highs, with Japan and the UK experiencing significant increases [2]. - The report notes a negative correlation between equities and bonds, which may continue if bond yields rise further [2][7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in cash and a neutral stance on equities after a strong rally, anticipating headwinds from a slowdown in hard data [7]. - The credit team has shifted to a more neutral stance on credit quality, favoring EUR over USD [7]. Forecasts and Projections - The report projects that the US 10-year yield will stabilize around 4.5% and the 30-year yield at 4.9% by the end of 2025 [2]. - The report highlights a potential for increased bond term premia, which could further weigh on equities [7].